FOREX: Euro Dollar: The fears are still present, the euro could benefit Monday, July 19, 2010 at 12:58

Fears about the economic recovery are still present and especially overseas. Macroeconomic statistics released last week have disappointed operators and thereby stimulated the European currency. Indeed, the CPI for consumer prices fell unexpectedly in June in the United States. On the other hand, the confidence index from the University of Michigan contracted to 66.5 in July, against 76 the previous month and 74.2 expected by economists.

After a weekend very difficult, markets are still under pressure on Monday morning. Indeed, traders await the release this Friday, July 23, the results of "stress tests" imposed a hundred banks in the eurozone. Dominique Strauss-Kahn, managing director of the International Monetary Fund (IMF), however, shows some confidence before the appointment, saying that banks "are strong enough to withstand any earthquake either. It does not, however, that the tests might reveal "by here and there, small financial institutions in difficulties."

On Monday, the euro continues to rise against the dollar. Around 13:00, the spot is approximately $ 1.2960.

Graphically, the trend remains bullish in the short term as evidenced by the short-term moving averages, which are always well oriented. Crossing the resistance of $ 1289 should enable the euro to rally the $ 1.3094 / $ 1.31. This level corresponds to both a 38.20% retracement of the decline between December 2009 and June 7, 2010 (or cross had hit a yearly low was $ 1.1877) and a major graphical upgrade.

However, in the medium term, the momentum remains bearish. Exceeding $ 1.31 invalidate this scenario and then propel cross towards $ 1.3511.

Hourly data chart: